Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms Wednesday morning in the Atlantic

Tropical Depression 7 formed around 5am Wednesday, located approximately 1185 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

As of 11am Wednesday -- just a few hours later -- Tropical Depression 7 continued to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gabrielle with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

The National Hurricane Center indicates that the system will further strengthen over the weekend and potentially become the second hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

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Mainland U.S. Impacts Next Week?

Early next week, Tropical Storm Gabrielle is expected to curve north and then move east-northeast through the end of next week.

With this path, Gabrielle may possibly bring a direct strike to Bermuda, but it is expected to remain well off-shore of U.S. Mainland soil.

However, rough seas and coastal flooding are possible along the Eastern Seaboard as Gabrielle churns the open ocean waters of the Atlantic.

Are You Sure It Will Curve?

As of this writing, it is still too soon to say for certain that the tropical cyclone will stay well east of the U.S. Mainland.

However, long-range ensemble models show high probability that Gabrielle will remain east of the U.S., with a potential path between the Eastern Seaboard and Bermuda.

The reason for this curve is due to the steering currents nearby.

High pressure near Bermuda (often known as the “Bermuda High”) is responsible for steering Gabrielle west towards the U.S.

However, a developing area of low pressure over New England in the Northeast U.S. and southern Canada will then act to “block” Gabrielle, forcing it to curve north before heading north-northeast.

IF the New England low is too weak or too far east, THEN the possibility would open up for Gabrielle to steer further west towards the U.S.

The possibility is low but not zero, and for that reason, it is a good idea to keep an eye on the tropics for the next several days.